克拉玛依市经济增长与生态环境关系的计量分析

Econometric Analysis on Relationship of Economic Growth and Eco-environment in Karamay City

结合克拉玛依市现状,构建经济增长和生态环境的指标体系,对原始数据予以归一化处理,确定权重,加权求和得到克拉玛依市经济增长和生态环境综合指数。对两者进行了相关分析(相关系数R=0.732 1),结果表明经济增长和生态环境综合指数的关系相对密切。通过耦合协调模型分析发现,克拉玛依市经济增长和生态环境的协调度C围绕其均值0.974 2上下波动。耦合协调度D总体也呈上升趋势,耦合协调度变化量ΔD值每年的增长幅度有一定的波动。2004年增加幅度最大,变化量ΔD为0.544 0,环比增长率r为13.01%。2009增加幅度最小,变化量ΔD为0.002 9。环比增长率r为0.56%,但是经济增长与生态环境某一增速的快慢直接影响着两者的协调度及耦合协调度。协调经济增长和生态环境二者的关系,实现二者的均衡发展,是克拉玛依市经济增长和生态环境可持续发展的重要因素。

Combining with the current situation of Karamay City, building index system of economic growth and ecological environment, using normalization process for original datas, the weights were defined and the composite indexes were calculated. The results show that ： correlation coefficient R was 0. 732 1 and the relationship between economic growth and ecological environment index was relatively close. The coupling coordination model analysis showed coordination degrees C centered its average value 0. 974 2 fluetuant and coupling coordination degree D displayed rising trend. ΔD value had the fluctuations. The greatest AD appeared in the 2004 years（0. 544 0）, ring growth rate r was 13.01%; the smallest AD appeared in the 2009 years （0. 002 9）, ring growth rate r was 0.56%. But the growth rate of economic growth and ecological environment directly affected coordination and coupling coordination degree. To coordinate the relationship between economic growth and ecological environment, achieve both balanced development, is an important factor for the sustainable development of economic growth and ecological environment in Karamay City.