基于网络流理论和随机游走过程的产业经济信息传递分析

Analysis of Industrial and Economic Information Based on Network Flow Theory and Random Walk Process

根据2007年我国投入产出的基本流量数据,结合复杂网络理论的建模思想,构建了一类有向加权网络——产业信息传递网络,并将流介数、随机游走中心性和累计首达介数作为网络研究指标,以此来衡量产业部门节点对于经济冲击的承载能力、敏感程度和周转能力。研究发现,流介数值较大的产业部门是整个国民经济体系中协调经济流通的枢纽,对于整个体系的稳定性起着关键作用。随机游走中心性值较大的产业部门对于产业环境发生的变化非常敏感。而累积首达介数较大的则说明其对经济信息的周转次数较多,需要在政府宏观调控中完善财政金融保障机制。

In this paper input-output basic matrix of China in 2007 was made use of to build a sort of directed and weighted network which was named industrial shock transition network based on the theory of complex networks. Then, flow betweenness, random walk centrality and counting first passage betweenness were chosen to analyze capability of adapting supply shock, sensitivity and turnover. As a result, sectors with bigger flow betweenness number act as the financial transportation junction, the ones with bigger random walk centrality numbers are pretty sensitive to changes of economic environment, and the ones with bigger counting first passage betweenness numbers have much more turnover times of funds which need financial protective measure in macroscopic readjustment and control.