江苏省土地利用碳排放时空动态

Spatial-temporal Dynamics of Carbon Emission in Land Use of Jiangsu Province

以工业化、城市化水平较高的江苏省为例,计算了1997～2007年江苏省及其所辖的13个地级市的年碳排放量,从时空尺度对各类土地利用方式的碳排放效应进行分析,结果表明:(1)从时间尺度看,1997～2007年江苏省土地利用碳排放总量由10702.53万t增加到12570.15万t,上涨了17.5%,并推测出2010年的碳排放总量将达到13701.44万t;建设用地和耕地是主要的碳源,建设用地对碳排放的贡献率高达98%,而林地增加所产生的碳汇远远不能抵消建设用地增加了的碳源。(2)从空间尺度看,11年间碳排放重心由119°26'E、32°57'19″N转移到119°28'55″E、32°51'7″N,向东南方向移动了12.33 km,预测2010年土地利用碳排放重心位于120°26'4″E、32°18'57″N处。最后,从减碳源和增碳汇两方面提出了低碳导向的土地利用政策相关建议。

Taking Jiangsu province with higher level of industrialization and urbanization as an example, the article calculated the annual carbon emission amount in Jiangsu province and its 13 prefecture - level cities during 1997 - 2007, and then analyzed the carbon emission effects of various types of land use from spatial and temporal scales. The results showed that ： （ 1 ） From the temporal scale, land use carbon emission in Jiangsu province increased from 107. 0253 million tons in 1997 to 125. 7015 million tons in 2007 by 17.5%, and the total carbon emission in 2010 will reach 137. 4176 million tons. Construction land and farmland were the main carbon sources, and the construction land contributed 98% to carbon emission. Carbon sink from the increase in forest land could not far offset the carbon source from the increase in construction land. （2） From the spatial scale, the land use carbon emission gravity moved 12.33 km towards southeast from 119°26′ E, 32°57′19＂ N to 119028′55＂ E, 32°51′7＂ N during the past 11 years, and it will shift to 120°26′4＂ E, 32°18′57＂ N in the year 2010. Finally, this article proposed some relevant recommendations about low - carbon - oriented land use policy from both carbon source decrease and carbon sink increase aspects.