三峡坝区强降水过程6～12小时综合预报方法

6—12 Hours Synthesis Forecast Method for Strong Rainfall in Sanxia Dam Region

为了满足长江三峡水利枢纽施工需要 ,开展了三峡坝区降水预报研究。在对三峡坝区强降水过程进行仔细分析的基础上 ,得出了有关统计规律 ,应用日本数值降水预报产品、卫星云图、雷达回波资料及天气学经验 ,逐步形成了一套 6～ 1 2小时强降水过程综合预报方法。 1 999年试用表明 ,该方法对三峡坝区的强降水过程预报具有一定的实用性。

In order to satisfy the demand of Sanxia Dam irrigation works construction,the research on rainfall forecast for the Dam region was conducted.The strong rainfall process in Sanxia Dam region was analysed and some relative statistics laws were summarized.On this basis a 6—12 hours synthesis forecast method for strong rainfall process was obtained by utilizing numerical products of rainfall prediction from Japan,satellite pictures,radar data and synoptic experience.The experiment in 1999 shows that the method is effective certainly for forecasting the strong rainfall process which affected the Dam region.