基于系统动力学分析的电力资源替代研究

Study on Electric Power Resource Substitution Based on System Dynamics Analysis

为探索人类永续发展能力与电力资源短缺矛盾的解决路径,在阐释广义电力资源四层次含义的基础上,研究了环境、经济和电力构成的复杂系统协调发展问题,并运用系统动力学方法分析了由环境系统、经济系统和电力系统组成的需求系统的均衡发展问题。研究发现,人类需求系统是一个受多因素影响的复杂大系统,要实现人类的永续发展就需理清需求系统中各因素的因果关系,把握制约电力资源供应的主要变量,区别其极性,诱导正反馈变量,约束负反馈变量,从而实施电力资源替代战略。

In order to explore contradiction between human sustainable development and shortage of electric power re sources, based on the interpretation of the generalized electric power resouree＇s four levels meaning, this paper studies the issue of complex system coordinated development which eonsists of environment, economy and power systems. By using the method of system dynamics, it analyzes the balanced development of the human demand system which is com- posed of environmental system, economic system and power system. The study shows that human needs system is a com- plex system affected by many factors. In order to realize our sustainable development, we should first elarify the causal relationship between the factors in the human needs system. What＇s more, we need to monitor the variables which restrict the supply of electric power resource, and to find out the difference between them, inducing the positive and constraining the negative. Finally, the strategy of eleetrie power resource＇s alternative optimization should be implemented.