基于灰色模型的临沂市物流需求预测

Study on Logistics Demand Forecasting of Linyi Based on Grey Model

为了在深度和广度上扩展物流产业、规划建设物流园区,根据临沂市物流业发展现状,运用灰色预测模型,充分考虑了GM(1,1)模型自身的特点和适用范围,以临沂市2006-2011年的货运量和社会商品零售总额为依据,预测了2012-2015年的物流需求量,并根据临沂市物流业发展的实际情况和经济发展情况,对GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行了分析,为制定区域物流发展规划、确定物流基础设施建设规模提供定量依据,对制定宏观经济政策和促进地区经济发展具有重要意义。

In this paper, in order to expand the depth and extent of the logistics industry and plan the construction of logistics parks and in light of the current situation of the development of the logistics industry in Linyi, we used the grey forecasting model and, fully considering the characteristic and applicable scope of the GM （13） model and based on freight transportation voluem and gross retail sales of social products of Linyi from 2006 to 2011, we forecast the city＇s demand for logistics between 2012 and 2015 and then according to the actual situation of the development of the economy and the logistics industry, analyzed the forecasting result yielded by the GM（1,1） model.