我国现代物流与国际贸易增长的实证研究——基于VAR-Granger模型的分析

Empirical Study on Modern Logistics and International Trade of China:Based on VAR-Granger Model

以我国经济高速发展期间的物流与国际贸易作为研究对象,基于二者存在于商品交易与物流服务的天然关系进行实证研究。首先,通过量化格兰杰因果模型明确了物流业对我国国际贸易的促进作用,进一步利用VAR脉冲响应和方差分析确定了物流业对国际贸易促进作用的大小,从而明确了当前我国高速发展的物流行业蕴含巨大潜力,并由二者的增长不对称性提出了我国物流业面临的困境与建议,以促使其对国际贸易的发展发挥更大的作用。

In this paper, with logistics and international trade of China as the subject, we studied empirically the intrinsic relationship between commodity transition and logistics service. First through quantifying the Granger canse-effect model, we clarified the promotional effect of the logistics industry for the development of international trade of China; further we used the VAR pulse response method and variance analysis to determine the magnitude of such effect, showing that the currently rapidly developing logistics industry bore huge potential and the asymmetry of the two caused difficulty for the development of the logistics industry in China, with corresponding suggestions given at the end.