市场化改革、经济战略与中国外汇储备积累:实证研究

Market-oriented Reform,Economic Strategy and the Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China:Empirical Research

对中国外汇储备成因的传统研究在很大程度上忽略了市场化进程因素对中国外汇储备积累的历史性和制度化影响。而外汇储备的决定因素分为两大类:战略性因素和制度性因素。战略性因素包括预防性需求、重商主义动机和机会成本;制度性因素包括对外贸易发展和市场化程度。通过一个改进的外汇储备需求函数模型对该因素进行实证研究,发现中国的外汇储备积累主要是外向型经济发展模式和市场化改革这一历史进程的客观结果,而非货币当局基于主观动机所追求的战略目标。

The traditional research on the reason of accumulation of foreign exchange reserve in China has neglected the effects resulting from market-oriented reform. The determinants include strategy and institution. The strategic factors include precautionary demand, financial mercantilism and opportunity cost, the institutional factors include trade development and market-oriented reform. Based on an amended model, we can find that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserve in China is the result of trade development and market-oriented reform, rather than the policy taken by monetary authority.