中国服务业能源消费CO_2排放及其因素分解

Emissions of CO_2 from Energy Consumption and Decomposition Analysis in the Service Industry of China

基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的CO2排放因子与核算方法,估算了1995-2010年中国服务业能源消费与CO2排放量,并对其总体变化趋势进行时间序列分析;以LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数)法辨识与分解3个时段(1995-2000年、2000-2005年和2005-2010年)中影响中国服务业CO2排放量变动的关键因素及其对CO2排放量的贡献值.结果表明:1995-2010年中国服务业能源消费CO2排放量增长态势明显,累计排放总量为853 197.55×104t;服务业能源消费主要依赖于高碳化能源燃料,各年度油品和煤品分别占能源消费总量的67%～74%和5%～27%;LMDI分析结果显示,1995-2010年产业规模和人口效应引起CO2排放增加量分别为133 357.10×104和7 691.25×104t,能源效率和能源结构引起CO2排放减少量分别为59 034.50×104和23 898.60×104t.提出CO2减排对策:①以经济、政策和监管手段促进服务业节能减排;②依托科技创新提高能源综合利用效率,降低服务业CO2排放量.

The energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the service industry of China was calculated based on the CO2 emission coefficients and the methods introduced by IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories （GNGGI） during 1995-2010. The methods of logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） analysis was applied to identify key factors that cause the change of CO2 emission, whose contributions to CO2 emissions during three periods （1995-2000, 2000-2005 and 2005-2010） were also estimated respectively. Time-series analysis showed a strong overall rising trend for the service industry, in which total CO2 emission was 853,197.55 ×10^4 t during 1995-2010. The energy consumption of the service industry mainly relied on the energy fuels with high carbonation such as oil and coal products which contributed for 67%-74% and 5%-27% of all energy consumption respectively; Industry scale and population effect raised CO2emissions by 133,357.10 ×10^4 and 7,691.25 ×10^4 t, while energy efficiency and structure reduced CO2 emissions by 59,034.50 ×10^4 and 23,898.60 ×10^4 t. Relevant recommendations were suggested according to the analyzed results, which mainly includes the establishment of a ＂reversed mechanism＂ by economic, political and regulatory controls, and the full support to technological innovation to enhance the energy efficiency and to reduce CO2 emission of the service industry of China.