增值税、营业税与经济增长的关系探析——兼论“营改增”对我国经济增长的影响

An Exploration into the Relationship among VAT, Business Tax and Economic Growth: On Impacts of the Pilot Reform concerning Converting Business Tax into VAT toward Economic Growth in China

本文利用1994-2012年的相关数据,分析了国内增值税、营业税与经济增长的关系,并通过设立营业税与国内增值税收入的比值(以下简称"营增比")指标,研究当前营业税改征增值税(以下简称"营改增")对我国经济增长产生的影响。研究结果表明:增值税比营业税更具科学性,"营改增"对经济增长效用为正向,有利于经济持续、稳定增长。应进一步扩大试点范围和试点行业。

By making use of relevant data from 1994 to 2012, this paper analyzes the relationship among domestic VAT, business tax and economic growth, and through establishing the index of ratio of business tax to domestic VAT （Hereinafter referred to as ＇ratio of business tax to VAT＇）, studies the influence of current tax reform of converting business tax into VAT on economic growth in China. The research results prove that VAT is more scientific than business tax, and the pilot reform of converting business tax into VAT brings positive effect on economic growth and also is conducive for sustainable and stable economic growth, and therefore the pilot reform shall be expanded to bigger area and more industries.