国际贸易与现代物流发展互动关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Interactive Relationship between International Trade and Modern Logistics

根据我国1994-2010年进出口贸易额与港口货运吞吐量、货物运输量的相关统计数据,采用实证分析方法对国际贸易与现代物流发展的互动关系进行研究。Granger因果检验结果表明,进出口额与港口货物吞吐量存在双向因果关系,货物运输量与进出口额没有明显的因果关系。最后提出了实现我国国际贸易与现代物流协调发展的建议。

In this paper, in connection with relevant statistical data, we adopted empirical method to analyze the interactive relationship between international trade and modern logistics development. Using Granger causal test, we found that there existed a two-way cause-and-effect relation between export/import volume and port freight throughput but freight transportation volume was in no obvious causal relationship with export/import volume. At the end, we proposed the suggestions to realized the collaborative development of international trade and modern logistics in China.