长期保障、投资回报与迁移劳动力回流决策

Long-term Security,Return of Investment and Rural Labor Remigration Decision

本文以我国特殊的转轨过程和制度环境为背景,尝试建立一个解释劳动力回流决策的微观模型,侧重分析家庭禀赋改变劳动力迁移预期以及投资回报率的条件下,劳动力如何通过方向不同的迁移决策来回应制度约束,改善自己的长期福利。研究发现,长期保障的缺失是迁移劳动力城市融入的核心障碍,而农村家庭禀赋的长期保障效应和投资回报效应是当前部分迁移劳动力主动回流农村的主要动力。在城市不能获得长期保障的条件下,迁移劳动力很容易选择回流,或者是在城市和农村间往复式迁移以获得城市部门的高收益,同时还可以维持农村家庭为其提供的长期保障。文章还利用武汉市迁移劳动力调查数据对所构建的理论模型和结论进行了实证检验。

This paper establishes a microeconomic model to explain the remigration of rural labors and analyze how the labor,given the family endowment changes the expect of migration and the return of investment, responds to institutional constraints and improves their long - term welfare through the multi - direction migration decision. And then it uses econometrics methods and relevant data from the surveys undertaken in rural area by the writers,to set up multi - line regressive models,which confirms the theoretical model and the conclusion. Based on the study above, this paper shows that family endowment security effect plays a major role in their remigration decision, another major reason is that such a decision is optimal for them to gain the payoff of both human capital and physical capital accumulated in the city.