基于集对分析的水库诱发地震综合风险评价模型

Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Reservoir Induced Seismicity Based on Set Pair Analysis

在水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系建立的基础上,根据评价指标的物理含义及其对水库诱发地震的作用情况,建立了水库诱发地震综合风险评价等级标准.用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法确定水库诱发地震综合风险评价系统中各指标和各子系统的权重,建立了基于集对分析的水库诱发地震综合风险评价模型(SPA-IRAM).SPA-IRAM在克孜尔诱发地震综合风险评价中的应用结果表明:基于集对分析的级别特征值法和属性评判法的评价结果具有一致性和互补性,联合应用可保障SPA-IRAM评价结果的可靠性;该水库诱发地震综合风险评价等级接近于2到3级、介于弱险与中险之间,需要密切监测该水库所在地区的断层活动、水库周围断裂发育和库区岩层裂隙发育的情况,进一步提高水库所在地区人均GDP和水库所在地区钢筋混凝土房屋比例,降低第一产业产值在国民生产总值中的比重和水库所在地区砖木房屋比例.SPA-IRAM综合利用了评价指标、子系统和样本与评价等级标准间联系数的丰富的结构信息和层次信息,可从指标、子系统和样本3个层次定量地分析水库诱发地震综合风险的复杂状态,在水库诱发地震风险管理中具有重要意义.

On the basis of integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity, an integrated risk assessment grading standard of reservoir induced seismicity was be established according to the physical meanings and roles of indexes in the situation of reservoir induced seismicity. The accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of both indexes and subsystems of integrated risk assessment system, and then, an integrated risk assessment model of reservoir induced seismicity based on set pair analysis, named SPA-IRAM for short, was established. The results of SPA-IRAM applied to assessing the integrated risk of Kezir reservoir induced seismicity show that the assessment results of the level eigenvaiue method and attribute evaluation method appied to assessing integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity possesses consistency and complement, the united application of the above two methods can improve the reliability of the assessment results, and that the integrated risk of Kezir reservoir induced seismicity is in the state between low risk and middle risk, the active faults and fracture developments of the reservoir area must be closely monitored, the GDP per capita and the proportion of reinforced concrete buildings must be further increased, the proportion of primary industry＇s share of gross national product and the proportion of brick and wood houses of the reservoir area must be reduced. The index connection numbers, subsystem connection numbers and sample connection numbers between assessed samples and assessment.grading standard can be used to quantitatively analyze complex states of integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity by using SPA-IRAM, so SPA-IRAM is important in risk management of reservoir induced seismicity.