石油冲击对“金砖国家”经济增长和通胀的影响

The Oil Shock on Economic Growth and Inflation of BRICS Countries

本文从外生性、长期乘子和短期动态乘子研究石油冲击对"金砖国家"经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。文章引入了Bootstrap方法对短期动态乘子进行了统计推断,结果表明:石油价格对"金砖国家"经济具有外生性;长期而言,油价会显著拉动巴西和俄罗斯的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯的通货膨胀;短期而言,油价会显著刺激巴西、俄罗斯和南非的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯、印度和中国的通货膨胀。本文认为,石油冲击不是导致世界经济衰退的主要原因,但它可能是形成全世界范围内通货膨胀不可忽略的重要因素。

The paper investigates the oil shock on economic growth and inflation of BRICS countries by the exogenous,long-term multipliers and short-term dynamic multipliers.It introduces a bootstrap method to inference the statistical properties on the short-term dynamic multipliers.The results suggest that the price of oil is exogenous of economies of the countries.In the long-run,oil prices will pull economic growth of Brazil and Russia significantly and also will push inflation of Russia noteworthy.In the shortrun,oil prices will stimulate economic growth of Brazil,Russia and South Africa significantly and will result in high inflation in Russia,India and China.It considers that the oil shock is not a main reason of the global economic recession,but may be a very important factor of inflation over the world.