宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险分析

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk in Ningxia,China

农业干旱灾害风险分析是农业防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以灾害风险理论为基础,构建宁夏农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模式,该模式综合考虑了干旱致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4类风险影响因素,并在GIS技术的支持下,完成宁夏农业干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明:宁夏各地农业干旱灾害风险差异较大,风险较高的区域集中在宁夏中南部山区的同心、海原、固原、西吉、彭阳等地,风险较低的区域集中在北部大部分地区以及南部泾源、隆德等地,这一结果与宁夏各地环境特点、经济投入、农业发展现状和趋势一致。

Drought disaster risk assessment is an important part of the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the disaster risk assessment theory, an agricultural drought risk assessment model was established in Ningxia, the model took into consideration four categories of influencing factors, such as drought disaster driving factors, environment factors, hazard-affected body factors and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity factors, then supported by GIS technology, regionalization of agricultural drought risk in Ningxia was accomplished. Results are as follows. In Ningxia, agricultural drought risk varies greatly. Higher-risk areas are distributed mainly in central and southern mountainous areas, such as Tongxin, Haiyuan, Guyuan, Xiji, Pengyang, and lower-risk areas are in the most of northern Ningxia and Jingyuan, Longde in the southern Ningxia. These results are consistent with local environmental, economic investment, and the trend of agricultural development in Ningxia.