行为决策中的比率偏差

Ratio Bias in Behavioral Decision

比率偏差是指小概率事件以不同比率形式呈现时,人们倾向于认为以较小数字呈现的事件更不可能发生。这种现象在医疗卫生领域和职业生涯决策中有重要的应用价值。目前关于比率偏差产生的解释主要包括标准理论与认知经验自我理论。比率偏差的影响因素主要包括元认知技能、计算能力、认知视角和任务性质等。未来的研究需要从比率偏差现象的产生、心理机制及应用方面进行深入研究。

The Ratio bias occurs when people judge an unlikely event as less likely or more surprising when its probability is presented in the form of equivalent ratios of small than of larger numbers. This phenomenon is universal in people＇s daily decision-making, especially in managerial and medical decisions. The paper introduces two psychological mechanisms of the ratio bias, including norm theory and cognitive-experiential self-theory. We then discuss the factors that affect the ratio bias, including metacognitive skills, numeracy, cognitive perspective, and task characters, ect. We outline several issues that deserve further investigations.