柑橘黄龙病不同管理方式疫情演变规律及防控效果研究

Research on Epidemic Trajectory and Control Efficacy of Liberobacter asiaticum in Different Management Approaches

为揭示柑橘黄龙病在不同管理方式下疫情运行轨迹,2002—2012年选取不同管理类型的柑橘生产区,以株发病率研究比较不同类型疫情流行规律和不同管理方式控制效果,将11年调查数据进行统计分析,建立数学模型,对疫情演变和控制效果进行量化测定分析。结果表明柑橘黄龙病年序疫情扩散流行总体呈线性上升态势,在不防控的失管橘园年均病株率11.11%,疫情扩散流行模型为y1=12.24x-1.3828(n=9,r=0.9769″);在一般防控条件下橘园年均病株率4.69%,其疫情扩散模型为:y2=5.4498x-1.6035(n=11,r=0.9749″),防控效果43.93%(22.93%～55.04%);在综合防控条件下橘园年均病株率0.31%,其疫情扩散模型为y3=0.3663x-0.3422(n=11,r=0.9898″),防控效果达96.15%(94.95%～97.40%)。因此,切实抓好综合防控工作,柑橘黄龙病是可防可控的。

In order to reveal the epidemic trajectory of Liberobacter asiaticum in different management style, different management approaches of citrus groves were selected from 2002 to 2012, which compared different types of epidemic trajectory and different methods of control efficacy by way of virus incidence studies. All the survey data in 11 years were used to build a mathematical model which the evolution of the situation and control efficacy were compared using quantitative analysis. The results indicated that epidemic trajectory of Liberobaeter asiaticum generally was in an increased linearly. In a naturally operating orangery without artificial control, the diseased-plant rate of an average year was 11.11%, and the diffusion model was： y1= 12.24x-1.3828 （n=9, r=0.9769＊＊）. Under the conditions of general prevention and control methods, the diseased-plant rate of an average year was 4.69%, and the epidemic diffusion model was： y2=5.4498x-l.6035 （n=11, r=0.9749＊＊）, which deduced the control effect of 43.93% （a margin from 22.93% to 55.04%）. In the integrated operating orangery, the diffusion model was： y3=0.3663x-0.3422 （n=11, r=0.9898＊＊）, which deduced the control effect of 96.15% （a margin from 94.95% to 97.40%）, in addition, which revealed the diseased-plant rate of an average year was 0.31%. Thus a range of comprehensive measures to Liberobacter asiaticum can protect the citrus industry, also help all the governors and growers gain confidence to the prevention and control of the virus.