人工防雹催化效果的数值模拟

Numerical Simulation of Seeding Effect for Artificial Hail Suppression

[目的]数值模拟人工防雹催化效果。[方法]在对内蒙古中部地区(以呼和浩特地区为代表)10年雷达探测资料、降雹资料以及人工防雹作业资料分析的基础上,利用三维积云催化模式,对冰雹云或雷雨云进行分时段催化数值模拟试验、不同催化部位数值模拟试验以及不同催化剂量数值模拟试验,根据数值模拟结果,经过分析并考虑实际人工防雹作业状况,得出适宜而有效的催化作业时间、作业部位以及作业催化量(AgI)。[结果]有效作业时间宜早不宜迟,提前20 min左右作业,效果比较好;催化作业部位应视冰雹云强度、形态结构以及催化剂运载工具的性能而定,对于中等强度及以下的冰雹云,在回波强中心催化即可,对于强冰雹云,一般在冰雹胚胎帘即过冷水累积区中作业效果最好;每次作业的有效催化剂量(AgI)一般应达100 g,对中等强度以上的冰雹云每次作业催化剂量通常要达100 g(相当于100发炮弹)以上。[结论]在冰雹云发展的适宜时间、适宜部位进行适宜剂量的AgI催化,可达到抑制冰雹云发展、防御冰雹灾害的目的。

[Objective] The aim was to educe the numerical simulation for catalytic effect of artificial hail suppression.[Method] Depending on the analysis for the radar echoes,hail shooting and hail suppression operation data in the middle region of Inner Mongolia(represented by Huhhot) from 2000 to 2009,and by using three-dimensional numerical cumulus seeding model,the numerical simulation seeding experiments for hail cloud and thundercloud were conducted in accordance with different seeding time,position and dose.According to the result of the numerical simulation,the feasible and effective seeding time,position and dose(AgI) were obtained through analyzing the result and considering the real condition of hail suppression operation.[Result] The results showed that the effective seeding time should be early and not late,and the seeding effect is better ahead of twenty minutes about.The seeding position is concluded on the basis of the intensity and configuration of hail cloud,and the property of tool carrying catalyst.For the hail cloud that the intensity is medium and under medium,the catalyst may be seeded in the strong center of the radar echo.For the intense hail cloud,the seeding effect is best in the hail embryo curtain or the accumulation zone of supercooled water normally.The effective seeding doses(AgI) ought to attain 100g each time commonly.For the hail cloud above the medium intensity,the effective seeding doses(AgI) ought to surpass 100g(correspond to 100 cannonballs) each time commonly.[Conclusion] When the feasible dose AgI seeding is educed at the feasible time and position of the developing hail cloud,the aim to suppress development of hail cloud and to defense hail damage could be achieved.