土地财政利润率的地区差异及其决定

Land finance interest rate's district difference and its decision

针对于当前的"土地财政"问题,本文提出了土地财政利润率的概念,用以分析土地财政作为地方政府"第二财政"的科学性。我们核算了全国30个省级行政区2003～2008年间的土地财政利润率,发现有近2/3省份的利润率不到50%,据此,不能一概地夸大土地出让对地方财政的贡献度,此外,土地财政利润率在省际间也存在非常大的差异。本文实证检验了造成土地财政利润率省际差异的决定因素,估计结果显示,省内县级政府财政自主度是决定土地财政利润率的一个关键因素,越高的县级财政自主度显著地降低了土地财政利润率。本文的研究表明了中国地方政府非正式的财政行为与正式财政体制之间所存在的密切关系。

This paper proposes a concept of land finance＇s profit margin,with the help of the fresh tool,we can appraise the scientificalness that land finance act as the second finance of local governments.We describe the land finance＇s profit margin of 30 provinces during the period from year 2003 to 2008,and find that almost two thirds provinces with the land finance＇s profit margin below 50 percent.So,it should not blindly exaggerate the importance of land finance.There is also a big divergence of land finance＇s profit margin among provinces.Then,the determinants of provincial land margin divergence are tested.We find that the county-level fiscal autonomy under the province is a crucial factor to impact the land finance＇s profit margin,i.e.,more fiscal autonomy leads less profit margin.This paper provides a strong evidence that the informal fiscal behavior of Chinese local government is deeply rooted in the formal fiscal institution.