“金砖国家”经济周期同步性计量研究

An Econometric Study on the Business Cycle Synchronization of BRICS

本文基于动态因子模型计算出"金砖国家"经济周期波动的共同成分,认为"金砖国家"存在显著的同步波动特征。由于"金砖国家"的主要贸易伙伴以欧美发达国家为主,美国和欧盟的经济波动与"金砖国家"的出口密切相关,美国等发达国家的经济波动对"金砖国家"经济产生着显著的影响,欧美经济下滑使"金砖国家"的出口增长受到巨大冲击,使得"金砖国家"的出口出现很强的共同波动特征。因此,中国应进一步拉动内需,以实现经济平稳健康地增长。

This paper calculates the common factor of the business cycle of BRICS based on dynamic factor model, indi- cating that the business cycle of BRICS is synchronized. The important trading partners of the BRICS are the developed countries such as the USA and European countries, so the economic fluctuations of the developed countries have affected BRICS significantly through the channel of export. The economic downturn in the developed countries lowers the export growth of the BRICS and the export fluctuations of the five countries show similar common feature. Thus, China should pull the domestic demand so as to keep economic stable and healthy growth.