我国海洋捕捞产值修正与渔获平均价格变化趋势分析

Data Correction of Output Value and Changing Trends of Average Price of Marine Capture in China

海洋捕捞产量与产值数据是反映我国海洋捕捞渔业发展状况的客观依据,对于分析产业现状、制定相关政策措施等具有重要意义。渔业统计部门已对1997—2006年间海洋捕捞产量指标进行了修正,但同期产值数据却未作调整。通过对1997—2006年我国海洋捕捞产量统计数据调整前后变化规律进行分析,借助未调整的海洋捕捞产值数据,在提出3点基本假设的基础上,分别构建了基于产值回溯的修正原理和基于平均价格回溯的修正原理,并对1997—2006年海洋捕捞产值进行了修正。结果显示,2种不同原理对海洋捕捞产值的修正结果存在一定差异,并最终以2种不同原理修正结果的平均值作为结论;从修正后结果看,海洋捕捞产值年均增长率达到13.59%。还分析了1997—2011年海洋捕捞产品平均价格增长趋势特征。1997—2006年海洋捕捞产值修正结论将为有关政府部门、研究者进行海洋捕捞渔业产值经济分析提供一定的数据支撑。

Production and output value of marine capture are objective basis to reflect the development of marine capture fisheries in China, and they play an important role in analyzing the industry situation and making relevant policy. Marine capture production has been revised by fishery statistics department from 1997 to 2006, but the output value in the same period has not been revised. By analyzing＇ the variation of the adjusted data and unadjusted data of marine capture production and output value from 1997 to 2006, on the basis of formulating three hypotheses, correcting principles based on output value backtracking and average price backtracking were constructed, the output value from 1997 to 2006 were also revised. The results showed there were some differences between the two principles, and then we took the average results of the two principles as the output value of marine capture： the average annual growth rate was 13.59% in the period, and the characteristics of the increase trends of the average price of marine capture production were analyzed. The adjusted data of output value of marine capture would play an important role for government departments and researchers for the marine capture fisheries economic analysis.