贵州省能源消费及碳排放高峰模拟预测

Simulation Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peak in Guizhou

为贵州省的节能减排提供参考依据,采用经济能源动力学原理,借鉴最优经济增长率模型,预测了贵州省2010—2050年间的能源消费、碳排放高峰和经济增长率。结果表明:在调整能源结构下,能源消费和碳排放高峰出现的时间均为2044年,碳排放峰值为133.91MtC,对应的年经济增长率为4.61%,人均GDP为7.59万元(2000年不变价)。在当前技术进步率水平下调整产业结构,能源强度降低,碳排放高峰时间提前到2035年,碳排放峰值为98.86MtC,对应的年经济增长率较高(5.4%),但人均GDP较低(4.35万元)。贵州省能源消费和碳排放均与经济增长间存在倒"U"型的EKC关系。

The energy consumption trend, carbon emission peak and economic growth rate during 2010--2050 are forecasted by the model of the optimum economic growth rate based on the principle of economical energy dynamics to provide a reference for energy conservation and emission reduction in Guizhou. The results show that the peaks of energy consumption and carbon emission both will appear in 2044, the peak value of carbon emission will be 133.91 MtC, the corresponding annual economical growth rate will be 4.61% and the per capata GDP will be up to 75,900 Yuan （constant price in 2000） under the energy structure adjustment. If the industrial structure is adjusted under the level of the current technical progress rate, the energy intensity will be reduced, the the carbon emission peak will be in 2035, the carbon emission peak value will be 98.86 MtC, The corresponding annual economic growth rate will be up to 5.4% but the per capata GDP will be 43 500 Yuan. There are the inverse U-shaped EKC relations between energy consumption and economic growth rate, and between carbon emission and economic growth rate.