空中交通网络流量短期概率预测方法

Method of Short-term Probability Prediction for Air Traffic Network Flow

流量预测是空中交通流量管理的重要内容。为提高空中交通流量预测的准确性和时效性,减小空域拥堵和航班延误,促进空中交通流快速、高效的运行,在确定性流量预测方法的基础上研究空中交通网络流量短期概率预测方法。通过分析不确定性因素影响航空器飞行时间的概率分布规律,建立了不确定性条件下航空器航段经验飞行时间和偏差数据库,提出了空中交通网络流量短期概率计算方法及预测算法。实例验证结果表明,所提概率预测方法与确定性预测方法相比更接近实际运行结果,预测准确率提高了18.6%,更能适用于复杂多变的空中交通环境。

Air traffic flow prediction is the important content of air traffic flow management. In order to improve the accuracy and timeliness of air traffic flow prediction, reduce the airspace congestion and flight delay, and promote the operation efficient of air traffic flow. The paper researches on the method of air traffic flow shortterm probability prediction based on the deterministic flow prediction. By analyzing the uncertainty factors affecting the probability distribution of flight time, the paper established the flight time and deviation database of experienced flight time on the flight leg, and presents the air traffic network probabilistic calculation method and prediction algorithms. The instance result shows that compared with the deterministic prediction, the probability prediction method of the paper proposed is closer to the actual operating result and the accuracy increased 18.6 percent, so it is more suitable for the complex air traffic environment.