消费信贷对中国居民消费影响效应的实证研究

Analysis on the Effects of the Consumer Credit on the Household Consumption in China

基于2007年1月至2012年10月的样本数据,采用协整检验和脉冲响应分析,从长期和短期两方面实证研究了消费信贷对中国居民消费的影响效应。研究表明,长期内消费信贷不会对居民消费产生显著影响,即增加消费信贷并不会改变人们的边际消费倾向;短期内消费信贷不仅刺激了消费需求,而且扩大消费信贷会对国内需求产生显著的正向影响。

Based on the sample data from the January 2007 to the October 2012,this article gives empirical studies on the effects of the Chinese consumer credit on the household consumption both from the long-term and the short-term by using the cointegration test and pulse response analysis.Conclusions show that,in the long term the consumer credit does not have a significant impact on the resident consumption,because the increase in consumer credit will not change people’s marginal propensity to consumption.In the short term,the expansion of consumer credit has generated significant positive impact on the domestic demand,which may be related to that Chinese residents mainly use consumer credit for durable consumptions.In this case,an increase in consumer credit not only can stimulate consumer demand but also brings the possibility of expanding production and that increases the investment demand,and thus cause the increase in domestic demand.