人民币汇率与中俄主要产品贸易分析

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate and Main Commodity Trade between China and Russia

基于ARDL模型研究人民币汇率对中俄主要贸易品的影响,中对俄出口以"纺织品和机械制品"为样本,中从俄进口以"矿产品和木及木制品"为样本。研究结果显示:汇率升值不利于纺织品出口和木及木制品进口,但对机械制品出口和矿产品进口没有影响。俄罗斯国民产出增加对纺织品、机械制品出口有促进作用;中国国民产出增加对木及木制品进口影响较弱;矿产品进口主要受非经济因素影响。对此,应"扩大货币互换协议规模以规避纺织品、矿产品贸易的汇率风险;保持政治互信以稳定矿产品进口;积极发展产业内贸易以协调和促进未来中俄贸易发展"。

This paper analyzed the impact of RMB exchange rate on main trade goods between China and Russia using ARDL model. By taking textile and industrial products as an example for china’s export to Russia and minerals,wood,and articles of wood as an example for import from Russia,we had the following conclusions : RMB exchange rate appreciation did not help textile export and the import of wood and articles of wood,and had no influence on industrial products export and minerals import ; Russia’s national output promoted textiles and industrial products export ; China’s national output had a little impact on wood and articles of wood import ; Minerals import was mainly affected by non -economic factors. We suggested that 'Enlarge the scale of currency swap agreement to avoid textile and mineral trade exchange rate risk ; Maintain political trust to stabilize minerals import ; Actively develop intra-industry trade to coordinate and promote the future trade development between China and Russia'.