成败型产品基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验技术

Bayes sequential test technique for binomial product based on posterior probability

分析了基于损失的Bayes检验方法和基于风险的SPOT(sequential posterior odd test)方法存在的不足.对装备试验与评价中成败型产品的Bayes序贯检验,在给定的两类风险要求下,建立了基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验模型(PBSTM),给出了模型的求解算法和实际验后风险的计算公式.最后结合装备可靠性分析案例,进行了示例分析,从数据上证明了PBSTM模型优越性和有效性.研究结果表明:PBSTM模型从理论上保证了序贯检验的结论同时满足小概率事件原理和两类风险要求,避免了现有假设检验方法存在的不足.

Defects of Bayes hypothesis test method based on posterior loss and sequential posterior odd test（SPOT） method based on risks were analyzed.According to the requirement of binomial product’s Bayes sequential test in equipment test and evaluation,considering the constraints of producer’s risk and consumer’s risk,posterior probability based sequential test model（PBSTM） was constructed,the PBSTM solving algorithm and formulas of actual posterior risks were presented.At last,with an example in equipment reliability analysis,the superiority and effectiveness of PBSTM was proved by data.The result shows ：PBSTM guaranteed in theory that the results of sequential test can satisfy the small probability event principle and risks requirement simultaneously,and avoid the defects of existing methods.