消费约束与货币政策的宏观经济效应--基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

Consumption Constraints and Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy——Based on the Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

本文通过在经典的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中植入商业银行部门,引入了居民消费约束,考察居民消费约束对货币政策宏观经济效应的影响。基于由贝叶斯技术估计的模型分析发现:一方面,引入居民消费约束后的扩展模型能够更好的拟合中国的经济实际;另一方面,居民消费约束明显的减弱了产出和通货膨胀对货币政策调控的反应程度,降低了货币政策的有效性。因此,为增强货币政策的宏观调控能力,货币政策决策部门在制定和实施货币政策的过程中应恰当评估居民消费约束状况,把握好货币政策的操作力度。

This paper examines the impact of consumption constraints on the macroeco- nomic effect of monetary policy by implanting the commercial banking sector in the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model, introducing consumer constraints. The results show that, the one hand, the extended model after introducing con- sumer constraints better fit China＇s economic realities; on the other hand, consumer con- straints significantly weaken the degree of response of output and inflation to monetary pol- icy shock, reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, in order to enhance macro-control ability of monetary policy, monetary policy decision-making department should be a proper assessment of consumer constraints situation in the process of formula- tion and implementation of monetary policy, and conduct monetary nnlic, v annranri^tF,｜,~r