工资加成、就业抑制与最优货币政策分析——货币政策是否应该对劳动力市场作出反馈?

Wage Mark-up,Suppression of Labor Employment and Optimal Monetary Policy Analysis:Should the Monetary Policy Respond to the Dynamics of Labor Markets?

本文首先通过SVAR模型确认了工资加成冲击对劳动就业的动态影响,结果显示工资加成冲击能产生就业抑制效应。在这一经验事实的基础上,我们建立了一个动态新凯恩斯主义宏观模型,并利用贝叶斯MLE方法估计了模型的结构参数,模型产生的就业动态比较好的匹配了实际经济中的经验特征。在此基础上,我们在垄断竞争和劳动力市场存在工资调整刚性的环境中就最优货币政策规则是否应该对劳动力市场动态进行反馈调控作了比较详实的研究。我们发现,如果在传统政策规则基础上加入工资缺口或劳动就业缺口的最优考量,将会降低通货膨胀和劳动就业缺口的波动性。而且,对劳动力市场进行动态政策反馈可以缓解工资加成冲击的就业抑制效应。进一步,相对于工资缺口反馈这种价格型调控方式,劳动缺口反馈这一数量型调控方式呈现出了更大的政策优势。

In this paper, we firstly construct a SVAR model to obtain the dynamic effect of positive wage mark-up shocks on the labor employment, and the result shows that the posi- tive wage mark-up shock can suppress labor employment. Based on these empirical facts, we construct a dynamic New-Keynesian macroeconomic model, and the model dynamics of employment very well match the empirical facts of the real economy. Further, we have investigated whether the optimal monetary policy should respond to the dynamics of labor market. The results show that if we add the labor market considerations to the traditional policy rules, the considerations of wage gap and labor employment gap will improve the policy performance, and will decrease the volatility of inflation and labor employment. Policy Response to the dynamics of labor markets will effectively relieve the employment suppression effect of wage mark-up shocks. Additionally, relative to the price-type inter- vention of wage gap, the quantitative-type intervention concerning labor employment gap has more advantages.