我国货币政策传导机制有效性研究——1994年以来数据的实证分析

A Research on the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism——An Empirical Analysis on the Data since 1994

本文分别从长期均衡视角和短期动态变化两个方面研究我国货币政策的传导机制,并对不同时期货币政策的有效性进行了评价。研究结论表明:通过利率渠道和货币渠道对货币政策目标的调控比信贷渠道更为有效,信贷渠道对经济增长目标的调控更为有效,而利率渠道和货币渠道对物价的调控更为有效。建议在现阶段的货币政策调控中,注重利率调整和对货币供应量的控制以实现对货币政策目标的调控,同时要考虑到货币政策的叠加和滞后效应,适度控制政策出台的时间间隔,提升货币政策的调控效果。

The paper makes a research on the transmission mechanism of monetary policies in China respectively from two aspects of long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic changes, and evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in different periods. The research results indicate that it is more effective to adjust and control the target of monetary policies by means of interest rate and cur- rency than credit, while it is more effective to adjust and control the target of economic growth by means of credit, and it is more effec- tive to adjust and control the price by means of interest rate and currency. The paper suggests that at current stage attention should be paid to adjusting the interest rate and controlling money supply to achieve the goal of adjustment and control of the target of monetary policies. At the same time, consideration should be given to the superposition and lag effect of monetary policies, intervals of policies should be controlled properly so as to enhance the effect of monetary policy adjustment and control.