“十一五”省级能源强度约束指标效率分配研究

Research on the Efficiency Allocation of China's Energy Intensity Constraint Index During 'Eleventh Five Year Plan' Period

截至"十一五"期末,我国各省区基本完成能源强度下降20%的政府分配目标,而实际上,各省区能源强度的下降幅度实际对应的技术效率相差甚远。本文在提出基于"零和收益"思想的环境生产技术(ZSG环境生产技术)的基础上,采用非径向分配方式将"十一五"期间各省区的能源强度约束指标按照整体效率最大化思路进行分配,并与能源强度的实际下降幅度进行比较。实证分析表明:对能源强度约束指标的分配结果,各省同时处于全部省区的共同ZSG-DEA前沿面上,可以实现各省能源节约与经济发展、环境保护的整体帕累托最优;中央政府提出的省级行政分配机制更注重的是"公平"导向,而本文提出的ZSG环境生产技术分配机制更强调的是"效率"导向;"十一五"期间各省区能源强度实际下降幅度对应的技术效率不同,部分传统的高能耗省区降幅尚未达到"理想水平",将在"十二五"时期应对形势更为严峻的节能减排工作,尽管实现能源强度约束指标的路径各不相同。

In China, all provinces have reached the target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010. In fact, the provincial technical efficiency change corresponding to the decline of energy intensity is greatly different. Based on the ＇ Zero-Sum-Gains＇ and environmental production technology, this study applies a non-radial efficiency allocation on energy intensity according to ＇ overall maximum efficiency＇ for each province during the 11 th Five Year Plan Period, and then compares it to real drop degree. The empirical results show that each province will reach ZSG - DEA efficiency frontier after allocation of energy intensity constraints has been accomplished using ＇ ZSG - EPT＇ model, and will achieve ＇ overall Pareto optimality＇ The provincial-level distribution mechanism proposed by theChinese central government pays more attention to ＇ fairness＇ , and the ZSG - EFr distribution mechanism focuses on ＇efficiency＇. Besides, the change in provincial technical efficiency is confirmed to be different, and the drop degrees of some traditional high energy consumption provinces have not met a favarable ZSG - EPT standard. Thus, those provinces will face larger pressure on energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in next Five Year Plan Period, although paths for realizing energy intensity constraint index are not same.