外来劳动力对澳门工资水平的影响研究

The Effects of Inflowing Labors on Wages in Macao

随着澳门经济的快速发展,输入劳动力成为缓解澳门就业人口不足的主要手段。本文通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解,考察了基于2003-2011年季度数据的澳门不同行业外来劳动力与行业工资水平之间的交互响应情况和响应路径。研究结果表明,在长期关系中,制造、建筑、金融和旅游业的外来劳动力会对本行业工资水平产生长期影响。除建筑业外来劳动力会微弱拉升本行业工资水平外,其他三个行业工资水平均受到本行业外来劳动力进入的影响而降低,说明廉价外来劳动力降低了澳门该行业的工资成本,进而从人力资本方面提升了澳门的竞争力优势。此外,虽然外来劳动力的引入降低了旅游业工资平均水平,但是其冲击作用显示出长期渐强的对其他行业的工资水平拉动上的正效应,说明旅游业作为澳门的龙头行业对就业人口的吸纳能力,导致澳门不仅在旅游行业需要引进大量外来劳动力,其他被旅游业挤占的行业更需要外来劳动力满足其开工需要。最后,本研究说明真正受外来劳动力引入而对工资水平产生巨大冲击的行业都是需要特定技术能力且本地居民缺乏的行业,所以要解决外来劳动力问题,必须通过高等教育和培训等方式提升本地居民的专业技术能力,使外来劳动力真正实现与澳门本地居民的就业互补,促进双方和谐发展。

With the rapid economic growth, importing outside labors became a main method to alleviate employed population insufficiency in Macao. This paper established vector autoregressive （VAR） model and by using the impulse response function and variance decomposition, investigated the interaction effects and response path between inflowing labors and wages in various industries based on 2003 - 2011 quarterly data. The results of the study showed that inflowing labors would play long-term effects on manufacturing, construction, finance and tourism industrial wages. Besides inflowing labor in construction industry will faintly pull up the wages in its own industry, the same effects also happened in the other three industries, which indicated the cheap inflowing labors reduced the wage costs and enhanced human resources competitiveness in Macao. And although the import of outside labor reduced the average wages of tourism industry, positive effects on wages of other industries had been showed in a long-term crescendo which indicating the tourism as the leading industry to absorb the employed population and other industries need more inflowing labors to satisfy their job vacancy. Finally, this paper showed that the industries really affected by inflowing labors were those with specific technical ability requirements and local labors were incapable of. So to solve these problems, the Maeau government must improve local labors＇ professional technical abilities through the higher education and training, and establish complementary employment relation between inflowing and local labors to promote the harmonious development of both sides.