中日韩GDP、人口、产业结构对能源消费的影响研究

Research on the Influence of GDP,Population,and Industrial Structure on Energy Consumption Among China,Japan and Korea

中日韩三国能源消费对其经济发展,对世界经济形势和能源市场都起着重要作用。在分析中日韩三国能源生产和消费的基础上,构建了1990-2010年三国能源消费面板数据库,并分别在静态和动态面板数据模型框架下,考察了影响三国能源消费的因素。研究结果显示,GDP和人口对三国能源消费总量均为显著正相关,三国能源消费呈现总量递增、构成改变、效率提高的发展趋势;人口对能源消费的影响超过GDP的影响;经济增长和城市化是影响中国能源消费的主要因素,人口是决定日韩两国能源消费的主要因素;第三产业对三国能源消费的影响均呈下降趋势,中国第二产业对能源消费的影响较高;上一期能源消费量的大小对本期的消费量具有显著正的影响。基于能源的稀缺性和世界能源竞争的激烈形势,中国应借鉴日韩经验,转变经济增长方式,建立能源与经济、环境协调发展的政策保障体系和管理程序。通过产业结构调整发展低能耗的高新技术产业,提高能源要素质量和能源利用效率。

The energy consumption of China, Japan and South Korea plays an important role on its economic development, world economic situation and energy market. In the analysis of energy production and consumption from 1990 to 2010 in China, Japanese and South Korea, an energy consumption panel database has been established, and respectively in the static and dynamic panel data model framework, the effects of three countries＇ energy consumption factors have been examined. The results indicate, GDP and population on the total energy consumption are positively correlated, three countries＇ energy consumption presents developing trend in total quantity increase, structure change, efficiency improvement; population impact on energy consumption is higher than GDP effects ; economic growth and urbanization is the main factor in China＇ s energy consumption, population is the decisive factor in energy consumption in both Japan and South Korea; the tertiary industry in the three countries on energy consumption is decreasing, second industry in China has higher impact on energy consumption; the volume of the energy consumption in last cycle has significant positive impact on the current one. Based on the energy scarcity and world energy intensive competition, China should learn from the experiences of Japan and South Korea, change the economic growth mode, build the policy support and management system that allow coordinated development of energy, economy and environment. Through restructuring industrial structure, develop low energy consumption high-tech industry ; improve the quality of energy factors and efficiency of energy utilization.