国际贸易和投资因素的动态碳排放效应

The Dynamic Effects of the International Trade and Investment of Open economy on Carbon Emissions

伴随着我国经济的不断发展和对外开放度的不断提高,CO2排放量也在不断增加。究其原因,不仅与我国的历史发展轨迹和发展模式有关,还与国际贸易和国际投资等国际转移性因素有关。从理论上看,国际贸易与投资因素都会对碳排放产生直接的影响,但这种影响的方向和程度却是不确定的。为进一步分析碳排放的国际影响因素,研究开放经济下外商直接投资(FDI)和对外直接投资(OFDI)以及进、出口贸易影响碳排放的方向和程度,以我国30个省市自治区的数据为基础,基于SYS-GMM方法的面板模型分析表明:我国CO2排放存在显著的一阶滞后效应,当期及滞后一期的出口加剧了国内碳排放;当期及滞后一期的进口对碳排放有积极效应;滞后二期的FDI起到了优化碳环境的作用;OFDI也降低了国内碳排放。由此提出的我国开放经济环境下实现环境友好发展的政策建议是:实施绿色FDI引进战略和新型"走出去"战略,转变出口贸易结构。

The carbon dioxide emissions are increasing, while the economic openness gets continuous improvement in China. The reason is not only the development path and development model of our country＇s history, but also the metastatic factors related to international trade and international investment. In theory, trade and investment of open economy will have a direct impact on carbon emissions, but the actual direction and extent of the impact are uncertain. For further analyzing the impact of international factors on carbon emissions, researching the direction and extent of foreign direct investment （FDI）, outward foreign direct investment （OFDI） as well as import and export trade affecting on carbon emissions, using the data of China＇s 30 provinces, cities and autonomous regions, analysis of the panel data model based on the SYS-GMM method shows that there is a significantly dynamic impact between China＇s carbon emissions at the year t and t-1. Current and a period lagging behind of the export increase the domestic carbon emissions. While current and a period lagging behind of the import have positive effect on carbon emissions. The two periods lagging behind FDI has the function of optimizing carbon environment, and OFDI also reduces domestic carbon emissions. Thus, to achieve environmentally friendly development, the article puts forward relevant policies on open economic environment： implementing strategy of introducing green FDI and new ＇ going out＇ , at the same time changing the structure of export trade.