基于旅游本底趋势线的河北省入境旅游市场成长研究

Research on the Growth of Hebei Inbound Tourist Market Based on Tourism Background Rrend Line

论文采用1996年-2011年的统计数据,运用旅游本底趋势线模型,建立河北省入境旅游人数、国际旅游收入和主要客源国入境旅游人数的旅游本底趋势线方程和本底趋势图,利用旅游本底趋势线的自然延伸功能对入境旅游市场成长进行预测,并对危机进行评价。结果表明,其预测误差较小,且未来五年,河北省入境旅游市场会保持平稳持续增长;针对市场成长的动态分析和危机评价提出了河北省入境旅游市场的开拓策略。

To achieve the purposes of optimizing the inbound tourist market in Hebei province,the article analyzed the development trends of inbound tourist market in the future,which based on the statistics data of inbound tourists of Hebei province from 1996 to 2011.It used tourism background trend line model to establish the tourism background trend line equation of tourist arrivals and inbound tourism income in Hebei province.Following it drew tourism background trend chart.Then,the article used the natural extension of tourism background trend line to predict the future.The results show that the prediction error is small.The inbound tourist market of Hebei province will maintain steady growth in the next five years.Finally,it proposed strategies to develop inbound tourist market in Hebei province.