层次分析法在城际铁路项目风险识别中的应用

Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Inter-city Railway Project Risk Identification

城际铁路建设项目的风险识别是风险管理的关键。此文采用层次分析法对长株潭城际铁路建设项目的风险进行识别,并对其风险特性进行分析。通过分析建立项目前期风险水平层次结构模型和层次矩阵,以此计算出风险因素的综合权重。结果表明,长株潭城际铁路建设项目的经济风险和技术风险是主要风险,组织管理风险、施工管理风险及政策风险是次要风险;异常气候和不可抗力风险产生的概率较小。

Risk identification of the inter - city railway construction project is the key of risk management. This article uses the analytic hierarchy process to do risk identification of the changzhutan inter - city railway construction project and analyze its risk characteristics. Through analysis and establishment of pre - project risk level hierarchy and hierarchical matrix structure model, the comprehensive weight of risk factors are calculated. The results show that economic risk and technical risk of the changzhutan inter - city railway construction project are the main risks; organization management risk, construction management risk and policy risk are secondary risks; the probability of abnormal climate and force majeure risk is small.