北京市医疗机构卫生专业技术人员需求预测——基于人力人口比值法

Forecasting of health professionals in Beijing medical institutions:Using a human population ratio method

目的:预测北京市医疗机构卫生技术人员需求量,为制定卫生人力规划提供参考。方法:根据2004—2011年北京市常规统计数据资料,运用人力人口比值法预测2020年北京市医疗机构卫技人员需求量和医护比结构。结果:从人员数量看,2020年卫技人员将达到308577人;从专业结构看,2020年医师数和护士数分别为108316人和148122人,医护比为1∶1.4;从不同层级医疗机构看,2020年二级及以下医疗机构医师数和护士数仍远远低于三级医疗机构。结论:2020年北京市医疗机构卫生技术人员数总量相对充足,但医护比例不合理,基层医疗机构医师和护士配备不足。建议保持卫技人员总量充足的优势,调整卫技人员专业结构,重点加大全科、护理等专业人员配置。

Objective： In this paper, we predict the needs of health professionals in Beijing medical institu- tions, and this paper is intended to be a reference for Beijing government to draw up a plan for health manpower. Methods ： We use the human population ratio method to predict the needs of health professionals in 2020 and the ra- tion of doctors to nurses in 2020. Results： We predict that there will be 308 577 health professionals in 2020, which is sufficient. However, the ratio of doctors to nurses is still not reasonable. In 2020, we predict that there will be 108 316 doctors and 148 122 nurses. The ratio of doctors to nurses will be 1 ： 1.4. In 2020, the number of doctors and nurses in primary and secondary medical institutions will be far less than that in level 3 medical institutions. Con- clusion ： Although the number of health professionals will be relatively sufficient in 2020, the ratio of doctors to nurses will not be optimal. The allocation of doctors and nurses in grassroots medical institutions will not be optimal, which means that medical service supply and demand will be mismatched. The number of health professionals should not be changed, but the configuration of professionals should be adjusted so that there are more general and nursing staff.