基于博弈论及神经网络的主动再制造时间区域抉择方法研究

Time Interval Decision-making Methods for Active Remanufacturing Product Based on Game Theory and Neural Network

针对再制造中再制造毛坯所出现的不确定问题,提出主动再制造的理念,在再制造的最佳时间段内对产品'主动'地进行再制造,以达到最好的效果。进一步阐述主动再制造的重要特征,并研究主动再制造的时间区域,探讨了该时间区域上限和下限的预判方法。时间区域上限是用来界定产品生命周期内各项性能指标已出现劣化应予再制造的时刻,在确定区域上限过程中采用生命周期能耗和生命周期成本作为优化要素进行分析,并基于博弈论方法,将能耗、成本要素之间的冲突问题转化为数学模型,进行冲突消解;时间区域下限是标志产品由于再制造技术难度和经济成本过高进而失去再制造价值的时刻,在确定区域下限时,基于人工神经网络方法,提出表征零部件性能退化的特征量值指标,通过建立各项指标与服役时间的映射关系,对零部件丧失再制造价值临界状态时刻进行预测。以某款变速箱输入轴系零部件为例,验证了主动再制造及其再制造时间区域抉择方法的有效性。

For the uncertainty issue of ＂cores＂ in the remanufacturing procedure, the main concept and features of active remanufacturing, in which the products are ＂actively＂ remanufactured in a reasonable timing for the optimazed benefits, is presented. With discussing the main characteristics and analyzing the time interval for active remanufacturing, the decision-making method for the upper limit and the bottom limit of time interval is studied. The upper limit of time interval, when it is appropriate to remanufacture the product since the performance indicators are worse in the life cycle, depends on the life cycle energy consumption and cost as the optimizing factors. Based on the game theory, the conflicts between the decision factors are converted into mathematical model to prognosticate the upper limit of time interval. Meanwhile, the bottom limit of time interval is the decisive time when it is inapposite to remanufacture the product with the complicated processes and high cost. Informed by neural network theory, the critical moment, when the component lost its remanufacturing value, is determined with several indexes that expressed the deterioration degree of this component, and the bottom limit of time interval is decided. A certain type of gear-box input shaft parts is demonstrated as the case study to validate the time interval decision-making methods for active remanufacturing.