以逐步回归计算机程序进行石油企业成本与收入的评价和预测

Evaluation and forecast on cost and income of petroleum enterprise using the stepwise regression computer program

本研究以逐步回归计算机程序进行石油企业经营指标的预测与评价,包括对企业历年经营成本与销售收入的定量评价,以及对未来年度企业生产成本及销售收入的预测。多元逐步回归分析法之前多用在天气预报及地震解释等大型数据处理中,很少用于经济预测。由于数学算法上作了相关改进,使其在生产经营历史较短、生产规模较小的生产企业经济指标的预测上也可应用,并取得了较满意的效果。特别是能够较清楚地通过输出曲线看出合理控制企业成本的一些可能性方法。在此基础上,提出了在企业管理上经济指标的1阶、2阶导数理论及在经营资金预测方面的应用。

Based on the stepwise regression computer program for the prediction and evaluation of management indicators of petroleum enterprises,including enterprises over the management of quantitative evaluation of cost and revenue, and to forecast the future annual production costs and sales revenue. Multiple stepwise regression analysis method is widely used in weather forecasting and seismic interpretation and other large data processing, rarely used in economic forecasting. Because mathematical algorithm were improved, which can also be used in the prediction of economic indicators of production and operation of a relatively short history, the production of smaller production enterprise, and have achieved satisfactory results ; in particular can more clearly see the reason- able control of some of the possible cost of the enterprise through the output curve. On this basis, economic indicators in the business management of the 1 order,2 order derivative theory and its application in prediction of operation capital is put forward.