东道国制度质量、双边投资协议与中国对外直接投资——基于面板门限回归模型(PTR)的实证分析

Institutional Quality, Bilateral Investment Treaties and China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Regression

本文采用2007-2011年中国对155个经济体的对外直接投资(OFDI)存量数据,利用面板门限回归模型(Panel Threshold Regression,PTR)考查东道国制度质量与双边投资协议(BIT)对中国OFDI的影响。实证结果表明东道国制度质量、双边投资协议对中国的OFDI的影响有明显的区制差异:制度质量的提高会促进中国OFDI流向低收入和高收入水平经济体以及中、小规模OFDI存量经济体;签署双边投资协议促进中国OFDI流向大规模OFDI存量经济体。但双边投资协议与东道国制度质量水平的提高并无助于中国OFDI流向中等收入水平经济体;双边投资协议还抑制了中国OFDI流向中、小规模OFDI存量经济体。

Using China＇ s outward foreign direct investment stocks data cross 155 economies from 2007 to 2011, the paper examines the effects of host countries＇ institutional quality and bilateral investment treaties on China＇ s OFDI stocks based on panel threshold regression. The empirical results suggest these two factors have distinct effects on China＇ s OFDI among different regimes. The improvements of host countries＇ institutional quality increase China＇ s OFDI stocks entering into low and high income level entities and small OFDI stocks scale entities. The bilateral investment treaties have great positive effects on China＇ s OFDI stocks entering into large OFDI stocks scale entities. However, the improvements of host countries＇ institutional quality and bilateral investment treaties baffle China＇ s OFDI stocks entering into middle income level entities and BIT also frustrates China＇ s OFDI stocks entering into small and middle OFDI stocks scale entities.