南昌市1961-2007年气温变化趋势及突变分析

Analysis on Air Temperature Variation Trend and Abrupt Change in Nanchang from 1961-2007

利用南昌市1961-2007年历年平均地面气温数据,运用滑动平均、小波分析和Mann-kendall非参数检验方法分析了南昌市1961-2007年的气温变化趋势及突变特征。结果表明:南昌市1961-2007年平均气温增温趋势较明显,线性倾向率为0.2℃/10 a。年平均气温存在准24 a、14 a、6 a的周期震荡,其中24 a、6 a准周期为主周期,在2002年左右南昌市气温发生突变,气温开始迅速升高。

With moving average, wavelet analysis and mann-kendall, variation characteristics of air temperature in Nanchang were studied by using the air temperature data from 1961 -2007. The re- sult has showed that annual average air temperature in Nanchang has risen obviously from 1961 - 2007. The Linear trend rate of which is 0.2 ℃/10 a. There were three quasi-periodic vibration：24 a, 14 a and 6 a,while 24 a and 6 a is main qiguasi-period. The air temperatue in Nanchang has been mutated at 2002, which has been rising rapidly.