非常规油气资源评价进展与未来展望

Unconventional Petroleum Resources Assessment:Progress and Future Prospects

近年来,国内外致密油、致密气、页岩气及煤层气等非常规油气资源评价取得重要进展,评价结果显示非常规油气资源非常丰富,勘探开发前景非常大。目前非常规油气资源评价方法也取得一些重要进展,分析了国内外具有代表性的方法进展,详细比较了5种主要类型方法(EUR类比法、资源丰度类比法、体积法、随机模拟法和成因法)的适用范围和优缺点。根据不同类型评价方法的优缺点及我国非常规油气资源评价现状分析,指出了我国未来非常规资源评价发展趋势:①采用统一评价流程和统一评价方法开展全国性资源评价,包括地质资源量评价和技术可采资源量评价;②采用改进后的资源丰度分级类比法、小面元体积法和EUR分级类比法等方法作为主要评价方法;③加强不同资源类型刻度区研究,建立起非常规油气资源评价的类比参数体系;④评价应包括经济评价和环境评估。

In recent years, significant progress has been made on the assessment on the unconventional petroleum resources （UPRs）, such as tight oil, tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane. The results show that UPRs are abundant and have great prospect of development and exploration. Significant progress has also been made on the assessment methods of UPRs. In this paper, we reviewed the typical assessment methods for UPRs at home and abroad, and compared the application scope, advantages and disadvantages of five main methods （including EUR analogy method,resources abundance analogy method, volume meth- od, stochastic simulation method and genetic method）. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of differ- ent methods and present situation of UPR assessment in China, it is concluded that future prospects of UPR assessment in China should include （1）using consistent procedure and method to assess in-place resources and technically recoverable resources, （2） developing modified methods, such as resources abundance analogy on levels,volume method on small portion and EUR analogy on levels,as major assessment method for UPRs, （3）reinforcing the dissection of calibrated units with UPRs to establish analogical data- base,and （4）considering economic assessment and environmental evaluation of UPRs exploration.