山东旱涝气候变迁的五个阶段

THE FIVE PHASES OF CLIMATIC CHANGES ON DROUGHT OR WATERLOGGING IN SHANDONG

本文根据山东旱涝气候变化中盛行的7—8年周期,确定将1470—1985年的山东旱涝演变划分为60个气候时段,用模糊信息检索方法把这些气候时段分为6种类型,根据气候时段序列具有的规律使用模糊判别法定出判据,又进一步将60个气候时段分别划归五个气候阶段,得出:干旱少雨的第5气候阶段将在本世纪末以前继续维持.

According to the prevailing period of 7-8 years in climatic changes on drought or waterlogging in Shandong, we have divided the time period from 1470 to 1985 into 60 climatic periods which belong to 6 climatic types such as drought, waterlogging, regular and so on, based on fuzzy check index of information.According to the law of sequence climatic time we have determined a criterion by means of fuzzy discrimination method and also divided the time period from 1470 to 1985 into 5 climatic phases. In the light of the criterion we know that present is in E climatic phase of more drought and less rainfall which began in 1916 and will last till the end of this century.