交通拥堵持续时间的非参数生存分析

Nonparametric survival analysis of traffic congestion duration time

采用生存分析的非参数方法,建立基于风险的交通拥堵持续时间模型,根据北京市三环快速路的交通流数据,对三环道路交通拥堵持续时间进行了估计.结果表明:三环各路段的拥堵持续时间56%在4 min以内,90%在12 min之内;当拥堵持续时间超过12 min之后拥堵结束的可能性小于10%.外环比内环更容易发生拥堵,但当拥堵发生后内环的拥堵持续时间更长.

The hazard-based traffic congestion duration model was established through survival analysis method. Based on the empirical traffic flow data on the Third Ring Road in Beijing, the traffic congestion duration of the Third Ring Road was estimated. The results show that 56 % of the congestion durations of road segments on the Third Ring Road are not larger than four minutes. 90 % of the congestion durations are not larger than 12 minutes. The hazard rate is less than 10 % when the duration is larger than 12 minutes. The occurrence frequency of congestion on the outer ring is larger than the inner ring while the congestion duration on the inner ring is longer than the duration on the outer ring.