影响农民工职业稳定性的分析框架与实证研究

An Analytical Framework and Empirical Study of the Occupational Stability of Migrant Workers

在城市政府为农民工提供越来越多、更加公平的公共服务的同时,"招工难"现象却并未因此减少。在对"招工难"现象的解读中,供给总量的增速减缓是一个方面,农民工职业的高流动性也不容忽视,因为农民工的频繁流动不仅造成企业用工成本增加,而且因摩擦性失业的上升放大了市场用工的紧缺现象。本文在基础理论和相关文献研究的基础上,初步拟定了一个影响农民工职业稳定的分析框架,拟从个体特征、经济水平、流动经历和职业满意度四个方面测量具有显著性的影响因素。本文的研究结论表明,新一代农民工教育程度有所提高,形成了较高的求职期望,但农民工难以从提高的教育投资中获得物质利益,因而职业流动性增强,流动经历没有对农民工的职业稳定性产生惯性的持续影响。与客观的工资水平相比,主观的工作发展、工作待遇和工作条件满意度才会对职业稳定性产生显著正效应,且尤以工作发展满意度最为重要。

'Recruitment difficulties' phenomenon has not been weakened while government has been trying to provide more and more equitable public services for migrant workers.The shortage of labor force supply has been considered as the key factor for'recruitment difficulties'phenomenon,a high occupational mobility of migrant workers should also contribute to the difficulties.The high occupational mobility of migrant workers not only results in increasing cost of human resources,but also amplifies the labor shortage due to rising frictional unemployment rate.Based on basic theories and relevant research literature,the article builds an analytical framework of influence factors analyses of occupational stability of migrant workers.The framework has four measure levels——-individual characteristics,economic level,mobility experience and occupational satisfaction.The dependent variable is index of occupational stability,which is composed by AHP.The main conclusions include,1) The new generation of migrant workers has not gained the returns from the promotion of educational level,but develops a high occupational expectation,which really leads to frequent resignation;2)The mobility experiences have not made inertial or continuing impact on the occupational stability of migrant workers;3) Job development satisfaction,job income satisfaction and job condition satisfaction,but not the nominal wage level,has the significant,positive effects on occupational stability of migrant workers.