重大灾害对我国经济影响研究

A Research on the Relationship between Chinese Catastrophes and Economy Increase

我国重大灾害频发,极大影响了社会和经济的发展。通过建立1949-2011年灾害频次和人均GDP的协整、ECM模型和脉冲模型,证明在我国现有防灾救灾体系下,重大灾害在长期、短期对我国经济增长具有不同的作用机制和贡献度。我国灾害防治要遵循重大灾害对经济的影响规律,建立科学、合理的减灾防灾体系,引入保险等工具管理重大灾害风险。

Frequently happened catastrophes in China have made huge damage to people＇s life as well as the social economy increase. Co-integration, ECM and impulse models were adopted to mine the data of disaster frequency and GDP per capital in China from 1949 to 2011. Models showed that disasters had positive contributions to the economy increase either from the long term or from the short term. The catastrophe prevention system of China should obey the rules that catastrophes work on economy, thus to build a scientific and reasonable system. Financial tools, such as the insurance, could be brought into the catastrophe risk preventing system.