水路交通中风险评估与通过能力研究进展

Review on Research of Risk Assessment and Capacity of Waterway Transportation

针对水上交通具有很大地域特征这一特点,论述了海湾、海峡、港口和内河船闸水域船舶交通流在风险评估和通过能力方面的国内外研究进展,并指出航道通过能力和交通风险存在内在的联系,在研究中需要将这两方面综合考虑.而在方法层面,在Bayes理论框架下建立风险模型,以及采用系统仿真的方式评价水域安全形势和通过能力是当前水上交通流研究中最为常用的方法.

Due to the fact that ship traffic has apparent geographical characteristics, the new develop- ments on risk assessment and capacity in gulfs, straits, ports and inland locks are discussed respec- tively. It can be seen that there is inherent relationship between maritime risk and capacity. So it is advisable to take the two factors into consideration comprehensively. In term of methodology, there are two most frequently-used ways to assess risk situation and capacity, which are modeling risk under Bayes framework and studying ship traffic flow with system simulation.