灰色预测在厦门市保障性住房需求量中的应用

Application of Grey Forecast in Prediction of Demand Quantity of Indemnificatory Housing in Xiamen

针对保障性住房供不应求的现象成为现今住房体系一大难题的状况,以2005—2010年人均住房建筑面积和城镇人口数为原始资料,通过构建灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测出厦门市2011—2015年保障性住房需求量。结果表明,该模型能够较可靠地预测保障性租赁房、经济适用房、保障性商品房需求量的发展趋势。

To solve the housing problems of low and middle income households, Xiamen vigorously promotes the construction of social indemnificatory housing in order to speed up the perfection of social security system. The phenomenon that demand exceeds supply in ensuring housing becomes a large problem of the present housing system. Establishment of indemnificatory housing needs GM （ 1, 1 ） and original data which based on per capita housing construction area and urban population in 2003-2010 were used to predict the demand quantity uf Xiamen＇s various indemnificatory housings during the year of 2011-2015. The conclusion shows that the model is reliable, practical and suitable for forecasting the demands of ensuring rental housing, affordable housing and indemnificatory commodity housing.