基于政策前沿的最优货币供应机制研究

Optimal Money Supply Mechanism Based on Policy Frontiers

构建了一个在货币政策中引入内生通货膨胀目标的动态随机一般均衡模型来研究最小化"产出-通货膨胀"波动的最优货币供应机制问题。贝叶斯参数估计表明,我国的货币供应机制具有较强的内生性;比较政策前沿发现,完全稳定和完全外生的通胀目标限制了货币政策的灵活性;而无平滑机制的动态通胀目标和有平滑机制的货币供应规则的政策组合能够满足货币当局在最优匹配产出波动和通胀波动时的相机抉择需要。

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including an endogenous inflation target was constructed to analyze China＇s optimal money supply mechanism which could minimize the volatilities of output and inflation. Bayesian parameter estimation reveals the endogeneity of money supply mechanism. Meanwhile, both the completely stabilized inflation target and exogenous inflation targets reduce the flexibility of monetary policy. Among monetary policy mechanisms that optimally respond to economic condition, a combination of smoothing dynamic inflation target and non - smoothing money growth in monetary policy is a better policy choice according to the monetary frontier analysis.