中国海洋经济安全的预警实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Warning System of China′s Marine Economic Security

海洋经济安全问题日益突出,影响海洋经济乃至国民经济的发展。在分析中国海洋经济面临的形势和研究现状基础上,结合海洋经济安全的影响因素,建立了中国海洋经济安全预警指标体系。运用因子法提取主成分确定了指标权重,采用数理统计方法中的3δ原理确定了预警等级的界限,中国海洋经济安全的测算结果用信号灯系统表示。结果显示中国海洋经济基本处于安全区域,但也存在海洋经济发展过热或是过冷的现象。最后基于灰色预测模型、趋势外推法预测模型和组合预测模型构建了中国海洋经济安全的预测模型,并提出了相应的发展建议。

The marine economic security issues are increasing, which has influenced the development of marine economy and even the national economy. This thesis analyses the impact factors and establishes the warning index system based on the study of current situation and research. The index weight is determined by using the factor method to extract the principal component. The boundaries of the warning level are estimated by 38 principles in the methods of mathematical statistics. The results of the warning levels are displayed by the light system. The result shows that China＇s marine economy is basically in a safe area, but there are still phenomena of being overheated or too cold. Finally the thesis builds the prediction system of China＇s marine economic security based on gray forecasting model, trend extrapolation forecast model and combined forecasting model. Some corresponding suggestions are put forward in the end.