对油藏数值模拟预测功能的一点考虑

PREDICATION FUNCTION OF RESERVOIRNUMERICAL SIMULATION

基于系统辨识理论,本文考查了油藏数值模拟的建模思路,分析了数值模拟模型的结构特点,经验技巧及其与拟合、预测的关系,进而认为,油藏数值模拟模型确定性的结构特点与它所依赖的地质模型描述上的高度不确定性这一目前难以调和的矛盾,决定了它的预测功能是有限的。

<ABSTRACT>: Based on systematic discrimination theory, this paper examines the thought of establishing reservoir numerical simulation models, analyzes the structural feature of numerical simulation models and the relationship between experimental technique and matching,predicating.Then considers that the current hard to compromise contradiction between the structure feature of certainty in reservoir numerical simulation models with the high vncertainty in the descrip-tion of geological model which reservoir numerical simulation models relies on, determines the limitation of the predicative function of reservoir numerical si-mulation models.